The world's population to decrease over the 21st century

For the first time in centuries, the world's population is set to decrease. Well, not just yet, because before it does, the population will increase significantly.

World population will decrease over the 21st century
© Kyle Glenn / Unsplash
World population will decrease over the 21st century

According to a study published in the journal The Lancet, the number of people having children has never been so low!

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And while this may not sound like such a bad thing to those of you worried about overpopulation, it also means that the world's population is set to age and shrink for the first time in centuries!

The Earth's population will peak in 2064

According to research by Stein Emil Vollset, Professor of Global Health at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the world's population will peak at 9.7 billion in 2064.

Thereafter, it will fall steadily to around 8.8 billion by 2100, less than 80 years from now! At present, the Earth is home to 8 billion people.

The lead author explained:

The last time the world's population fell was in the middle of the 14th century, because of the Black Death. If our predictions are correct, this will be the first time that population decline will be due to a fall in fertility, as opposed to events such as a pandemic or famine.

In other words, the last Covid-19 pandemic, which hit the world hard, will not in the end be the cause of a major change in the world, even with the appearance of new variants.

The expert's predictions extend to 27 countries around the world, which will experience a significant decline in population numbers. Interestingly, this includes densely populated countries such as South Korea and China. China's population is expected to fall from 1.4 billion in 2017 to 732 million in 2100.

Read more:Expert reveals what would happen to the Earth if humans went extinct

Why is fertility falling?

The reason for this steady decline is that more people will have access to contraception. Awareness and education about unwanted pregnancies are constantly increasing among the least informed populations.

Dr Vollset explains:

The global total fertility rate is expected to fall steadily from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100, well below the minimum rate (2.1 births per woman) considered necessary to maintain population numbers.

Read more:Modern Nostradamus predicts that World War III will happen sooner than we think

This article has been translated from Gentside FR.

Source used:

The Lancet: Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

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